Apple needs phones and smart homes to revive pricey stock

Ryan Vlastelica / Bloomberg

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Apple Inc is rolling out a slew of new products and improved older ones this week, but investors are unsure if it will be enough to boost one of the most expensive stocks in the market.(Oct 13): Apple...

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Later this month, the company is planning to launch a touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini. And on Friday, pre-orders begin for the new foldable iPhone Duo, which represents the biggest design change in the history of Apple's most profitable device and carries a commensurately hefty price tag.\nThe stakes are high for Apple shares, which soared to a record in late July amid reports about its push into the smart-home market and scepticism about heavy artificial intelligence (AI) spending that Apple has avoided. But the stock is basically flat in the months since.\n\"For a company of this size, you need super-hit products to move the needle on growth,\" said Peter Andersen, who helps oversee US$5.5 billion as chief investment officer of Andersen Capital Management. \"I'm just not sure anything we're getting is exciting enough to lead to an inflection.\" \n\nThe stock is up 25% this year, making Apple the top performer among the Magnificent Seven tech giants. It trades at more than 35 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months, right around its highest multiple since 2007 and well above its 10-year average of 24. Apple is among the 50 most expensive stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which is priced at 19 times forward earnings.\nSome of that reflects Apple's unique position within the AI trade, where it isn't exposed to spending risk but is considered a key beneficiary of the technology's development. And it shows investors' high expectations for new chief executive officer John Ternus and their hopes that he can generate growth by upgrading and expanding its lineup of devices.\nThat's a risk, however. The company has cut component orders for some iPhone models due to weaker-than-expected demand, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report last week. Meanwhile, consumers are feeling pressured by stubborn inflation, and Apple has had to raise prices due to higher costs for components like memory chips. \n\n\"Apple executes its products flawlessly, but it's hard to expect these will really take off,\" said Andersen, who doesn't own the stock, in part due to what he sees as the company's lack of innovation. \"Not only have there been major players in the home market for years, but Apple is launching these products into a market where consumers are under a lot of pressure.\"\nWhat's more, Apple's growth rate is lagging its Big Tech peers, making its high stock market valuation stand out even more than it already does. The company's fiscal year ended on Sept 30, and it's projected to post a 15% rise in annual revenue when it reports earnings in a few weeks. But that appears to be a near-peak, with the pace expected to slow to 10% in fiscal 2027 and 7.8% in fiscal 2028. \n\"Apple doesn't look like a value stock or a growth stock,\" Andersen said. \"Given where the multiple is, it seems questionable to expect much additional stock upside from here.\"\nOf course, Apple isn't alone in its slowing growth. Overall tech sales are expected to experience a deceleration in the coming years, albeit off a much higher level. Revenue is projected to climb 37% for the S&P 500 information tech sector in 2026, and 29% in 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.\nWhether Apple's new products will alter the company's earnings outlook remains to be seen. But Wall Street hasn't been racing to adjust its projections. Analysts' expectations for the company's fiscal 2027 net income have dipped by 0.6% over the past three months, while their view for revenue has risen 0.7%. \n\"Apple's product path seems promising, but I don't think the first generation of new products will mean much for overall revenue,\" said Lu Zhang, founder and managing partner of Fusion Fund, who owns the stock in her personal portfolio. \"It remains to be seen whether we will see the kind of new use cases [for the foldable Duo] that will contribute to a broad upgrade cycle.\"\nNevertheless, Zhang remains positive on the stock. Apple could improve its AI offerings, she said, but it will continue to benefit from being a gateway for consumers to access the emerging technology.\n\"All the AI companies are competing with each other, but whenever they launch a new model they need Apple as a key distribution channel, and that's an area where it essentially has no competitor,\" she said. \"Even if Duo adoption isn't high right out of the gate, so long as Apple continues to execute on its hardware, it will warrant a premiere multiple.\"\nUploaded by Felyx Teoh","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}