The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0814 GMT - Natural resource companies are offering cash to investors now, unlike some technology companies that rely on profits far into the future, Ninety One's Head of Natural Resources Paul Gooden writes. The average free-cash-flow yield of companies in Ninety One's natural resources portfolio is currently around 8%, he says. This compares with approximately 4% for the broader equity market, he adds. AI, data centers and electrification all rely on natural resources associated with the "old economy," Gooden says. This offers a potentially supportive backdrop for natural resources stocks, he adds. "The future may be digital, but it will still have to be built, powered and mined," he says. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0733 GMT - New York gold futures trade flat at $4,654.70 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The market remains stuck between expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, which would weight on non-yielding assets like gold, and worries over U.S. debt. While higher rates could hit gold prices, the downside looks limited as the debasement trade continues to attract investor buying, ANZ analysts write. The debasement trade means buying assets expected to hold their value against the weakening of the dollar and other fiat currencies.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0518 GMT - United Tractors' 2H earnings should be supported by the restart of its Martabe gold mine in Indonesia, Bahana Sekuritas' Jeremy Mikael says in a research report. The Indonesian company keeps its 80,000-ounce gold sales volume guidance for 2026, which the brokerage expects to increase to 150,000 ounces in 2027 and 230,000 ounces in 2028. With gold prices above $4,000 per ounce, the combination of higher volume and elevated average selling prices should offer meaningful earnings support to United Tractors. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to 28,200.00 rupiah from 28,000.00 rupiah to reflect valuation rollover, with an unchanged buy rating. Shares are 0.6% higher at 24,000.00 rupiah. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0506 GMT - Given Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's well-known scepticism toward forward guidance, investors should likely temper expectations of any meaningful hints on the future policy path, Impax Asset Management's Ross Pamphilon says in a note. "Instead, I would expect greater emphasis on inflation, productivity and labour market dynamics," the CIO of fixed income says. Warsh will need, however, to strike a careful balance, and this speech at Jackson Hole represents an early test of his communication strategy and credibility, Pamphilon says. "A message perceived as too dovish could trigger further [Treasury] curve steepening, weigh on the dollar and support gold. Conversely, a more hawkish tone risks prompting markets to price a September rate hike." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0203 GMT - Mineral Resources' FY 2026 result is a strong one, with earnings a small beat and its dividend reinstated at a much higher level than anticipated, Barrenjoey says. The miner declared a dividend of A$0.83, while Barrenjoey had forecast A$0.50 and consensus was at just A$0.07, the bank says. That "should be taken positively," says Barrenjoey. "FY27 guidance also broadly better than market expected across the board, with Wodgina a strong beat on volume and costs, and capex slightly better on a like-for-like basis," it says. The bank has an overweight rating and a A$73.00 target on Mineral Resources. Shares initially jumped as high as A$70.87 but have tumbled through the morning in Sydney to recently trade down 2.1% at A$65.51. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0201 GMT - South32's FY 2027 guidance is more strongly geared to base metals than anticipated, says Jefferies. A production forecast at Cannington of 290,000 tons dwarfs Jefferies' 206,000-ton estimate, it says. South32's estimates for volumes at Sierra Gorda are also higher than expected. "We remain constructive on South32 as a diversified base-metals growth vehicle, with disciplined capital management and improving portfolio clarity," Jefferies says. The bank has a buy rating and A$6.00/share target on South32. Shares are up 0.2% at A$5.15. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0128 GMT - IGO surprises with a final dividend of A$0.05/share, versus consensus of A$0.01/share. "This marks IGO's first dividend since FY24 as dividends had been suspended due to the downturn in the lithium cycle," Citi says. Otherwise, the miner reports a broadly in-line set of FY results, says the bank. "With CGP3 restarting production in early August and Nova expected to leave the portfolio following completion of the sale, investor focus increasingly shifts toward capital allocation discipline, Greenbushes optimization and the company's copper growth ambitions," Citi says. It has a neutral rating and A$7.10/share target on the stock. Shares are up 1.3% at A$8.30. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0121 GMT - Gold rises in Asian trade. The precious metal faces limited downside due to the so-called dollar debasement trade continuing to attract investor buying, ANZ Research analysts write in a note. This is despite a U.S. inflation gauge remaining above the Federal Reserve's target, raising market expectations of the central bank hiking rates by the year-end, they add. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. Attention now turns to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual Jackson Hole gathering later this week, the tone of which could well sway monetary-policy expectations, says Critical Metals' Tony Sage. Spot gold gains 0.5% to $4,617.78 a troy ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0121 GMT - With no surprises in Greatland Resources' year-end result, the market's attention will now turn to its Havieron project and drilling activities, says Citi. "With all necessary secondary approvals for the Havieron, we expect the focus for GGP will be on construction and development activity" there, as well as the West Dome Underground study at the Telfer mine "and working through the 215 kilometers of drilling budgeted for FY27," Citi says. The bank has a buy rating and A$14.00/share target on Greatland. Shares are down 2.4% at A$13.20. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0050 GMT - The main positives in miner South32's FY result are the Cannington mine, where Ebitda tops consensus by 5%, and group free cash flow, which is a 17% beat, says Citi. The main negatives are its manganese business, which posts a 3% miss on Ebitda, and Brazil Alumina, where Ebitda falls 33% short, the bank says. "The retained base metals assets delivered above estimates, the misses were concentrated in the assets being sold, and the strong cash generation supports higher returns under the updated capital management framework post the Alcoa transaction," Citi says. It reiterates a buy rating and A$5.30/share target. Shares are up 0.6% at A$5.17. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0038 GMT - Miner South32 posts "clean results," with FY 2026 earnings slightly higher than consensus and its total dividend roughly in line, says Barrenjoey. "S32 said current dividend policy with 40% payout ratio applies until completion" of the aluminum-business sale, the bank notes. South32's FY 2027-2028 volume guidance has Sierra Gorda copper-equivalent production ahead of consensus, but Gemco softer, Barrenjoey says. It adds that FY 2027 unit cost guidance is better than Barrenjoey expected at Sierra Gorda and Cannington, but worse at Gemco. The bank has an overweight rating and A$5.00/share target on the stock. Shares are up 0.6% at A$5.17. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1822 GMT - Gold futures ease back from the three-month highs reached early this week after PCE inflation--a consumer price gauge favored by the Fed--picked up in July. The report was closely watched given its implications for Fed policy. "The metal could continue to benefit from concerns over U.S. debt levels as well as expectations of a Fed hold at its next meeting," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage says in a note. "However, a hike is still expected at the following meeting, which could fuel some pressure." Front month gold finishes down 0.86% to $4598.20 a troy ounce. Silver drops 0.94% to $67.990 a troy ounce.