Ulta Beauty's shares have been more like an eyesore this year.

Consensus calls for Ulta to earn $6.21 a share on revenue of $3 billion when it reports results on Thursday. The shares sold off after the previous two earnings reports this year, in March and June, leaving the stock down double digits year to date. Investors are concerned about increasing competition and vulnerable profitability.

Last week's great quarter from prestige beauty company Estée Lauder may have raised hopes going into the report about the continued demand for cosmetic products. However, it remains to be seen if Ulta will benefit from similar trends. Although the company benefits from exclusive products and a strong base of loyal customers, investors see ongoing spending on marketing and other initiatives eating into margins. The company also no longer has dedicated shelf space in Target-just as that big box retailer is finally providing evidence of a long-awaited turnaround.

Two-thirds of analysts tracked by FactSet are bullish on the shares, seeing nearly 20% upside.

After two difficult quarters and subsequent stock decline, investors could be primed to reward results that are better than feared, particularly as consumers still seem to be spending on beauty products. Yet that's far from guaranteed, as its track record shows.