With summer winding down and vacations drawing to a close, more people are probably checking out of a Marriott International hotel than checking in. Yet investors might want to stay a bit longer in the stock.

Marriott, along with Hilton Worldwide Holdings, is one of two major global hotel brands that dominate the industry. It operates a lucrative asset-light business model, in which franchised properties provide healthy cash flow. Its high end brands, including Ritz-Carlton and W Hotels, make it a destination for wealthier consumers, and Marriott Bonvoy is the industry's largest loyalty program, with nearly 300 million members. Those factors should help the shares keep outperforming as travel remains a priority for people around the world.

"It's been one of the more obvious winners from the demand perspective this year," says Kevin McCarthy, managing director at Neuberger Berman, which is a Marriott shareholder. "The mousetraps that both [Marriott and Hilton] have built have done a job of squishing any cyclical concerns."

Both stocks have outperformed S&P 500 so far in 2026, but Marriott has pulled ahead a bit, with a nearly 16% year-to-date increase.

That means expectations have come higher in tandem, but "the stock's recent rally has largely been earned," says Andrew Choi, portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments, which owns the stock. "Marriott has been one of the most consistent 'beat-and-raise' earnings stories in the sector this year."

It's true that lodging-and the travel industry more broadly-has been choppy in recent years as the postpandemic boom has given way to a more normal environment. However, demand appears to remain strong, particularly among the wealthier vacationers likely to choose Marriott.

And there are more catalysts on the horizon, Choi says: "The first is the company's new long-term credit-card agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express, which we estimate could add more than $100 million in annual fees by 2028. The second is the removal of headwinds in the Middle East related to both construction delays and the reduction of travel in that area."

The latter is a moving target, but Wall Street has been willing to bet that the conflict is closer to an end than not, and consensus earnings estimates have been moving higher throughout the summer. Analysts now expect Marriott to earn $11.71 a share this year and $13.11 in 2027, year-over-year growth of almost 17% and 12%, respectively.

Likewise, even when Marriott customers aren't traveling, they are still likely swiping (or tapping) their cards.

"The new credit-card agreements add a fee stream tied more to cardholder spending and loyalty engagement than to travel volumes directly," Choi says. "Credit card fees provide an additional source of stable recurring revenue, which should make that growth driver a bit more durable over the next few years."

Marriott isn't without its risks. Travel is one of the most obviously economically sensitive industries that could be hit with an economic downturn, if one should materialize. Even without that, election years have historically been associated with a pullback in corporate travel ahead of the vote-a pattern that could be heightened in the current ultra-polarized environment. A robust World Cup bump in the U.S. and Canada means a tougher setup for the back half of the year. And there are tensions between Marriott and franchisees over fees, which could endanger those fees.

Yet the biggest risk is certainly the valuation. After the stock's great run, the shares trade for 27.5 times next year's earnings-not unprecedented, and below the five-year average, but nonetheless far from bargain territory. It's the biggest hangup for McCarthy, despite his belief in secular drivers behind Marriott's rise, and why he understands not rushing to put new money to work in the stock. "It's just a question of how much are you paying for that."

Those are all valid concerns, but might not be as worrisome as they seem.

So far, the economy has remained strong, bolstering the case for ongoing travel demand. The company's fee based structure means it's more insulated from a downturn than hotel owners, but it's also working to smooth relations with them as well.

"This quarter also brought considerable discussion around improving ownership economics as loyalty profits grow...Marriott continues to work with owners to strengthen those economics" wrote Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham, who says the stock deserves to trade to $405.

Marriott's double-digit earnings profile make its multiple more easily digested. "The premium is largely justified by the quality and visibility of the earnings," says Choi.

Marriott's balance sheet is healthy, with leverage around three times net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda), and the company promised to return over $4.5 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends this year on its most recent earnings call in early August. Its duopoly with Hilton, and the fact that new hotel supply has lagged behind travel demand in recent years should help with pricing power.

Investors may have wished they checked out Marriott years ago, but the stock doesn't look like it's run out of room yet.

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