Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1111 ET -- U.S. natural gas inventories posted their smallest build so far in the current injection season, reducing the surplus over the five-year average to its lowest level in two months. Gas in underground storage increased by 15 billion cubic feet last week to 3,184 Bcf, the EIA reports. The storage build was below the five-year average for the week of 33 Bcf, and smaller than the 21 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Stocks were 167 Bcf above the 2012-2025 average, compared with a surplus of 185 Bcf the previous week. Nymex natural gas is up 2% at $2.898/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1049 ET - Dubai leads most major Gulf stock markets higher as domestic developments provide some support against continued geopolitical uncertainty. Positive developments in tourism, investment and banking are helping investor sentiment, allowing markets to look through some of the regional uncertainty, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Still, geopolitical risk remains a key concern through oil prices and regional tensions, with domestic strength offsetting rather than eliminating the risk premium, he says. The Dubai Financial Market General Index rises 0.3%, Qatar's QE index gains 0.2% and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index adds 0.1%, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index slips 0.2%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1002 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher with the market looking to weekly storage data due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict a 21 Bcf storage injection, which would put stocks 173 Bcf above the five-year average, down from a 185 Bcf surplus the previous week. Meanwhile, hotter weather into early September and LNG feedgas demand reaching a two-month high as Freeport and Corpus Christi return to full strength "offer a bullish bias into today's September contract final settlement," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 2.4% at $2.911/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Oil futures are higher following three days of declines, with the market watching for progress toward a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The pickup in prices is "underscoring how two-sided the market remains as traders balance diplomatic optimism against limited evidence of a meaningful improvement in physical flows," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "The path forward hinges on whether the 30- to 60-day corridor timeline holds and physical loadings actually rise, leaving prices vulnerable to sharp reversals on any setback." WTI is up 0.3% at $82.50 a barrel and Brent rises 1.1% at $88.78 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0946 ET - The Australian dollar rises to a three-month high against the U.S. dollar as foreign-exchange investors focus on seeking carry, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. Carry is when investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding currencies elsewhere. The Australian dollar is a popular carry target, with Australia's official cash rate standing at 4.35%. The market's current focus on carry overrides for now any concerns about weaker Chinese growth and a potential protracted shortage of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, Juckes says. "The market is focusing on carry above everything else, and geopolitical selloffs may just prove to buying opportunities," he says. The Australian dollar rises 0.3% to a high of $0.7195, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0856 ET - Treasury yields are little changed as the U.S. economy shows strength ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech Friday. Nvidia's strong revenue growth lifts Wall Street's mood, while crude futures tick higher. Weekly jobless claims decrease to 203,000 from an upwardly revised 207,000, as layoffs remain contained. Investors expect so far cagey Warsh to clarify his approach to inflation and his view on the Treasury plan to increase long-term bond buyouts. The 10-year trades at 4.666%, slightly higher than yesterday's settle but off overnight highs. The two-year follows a similar pattern and trades at 4.228%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0840 ET - Risk premiums around the Strait of Hormuz are easing after Oman and Iran discussed a temporary navigational corridor through the waterway and a proposed mine-clearing project, Emirates NBD says. Brent crude fell 3.9% to $88.58 a barrel following the developments, helping ease concerns over energy-driven inflation and pulling U.S. Treasury yields lower, senior economist Jeanne Walters says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0837 ET - XXXX GMT -- Middle East medium sour crude differentials edged lower on Wednesday, though buying interest emerged for Omani crude, according to S&P Global Energy. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Platts assesses October cash Dubai and cash Oman at a premium of $9.38 a barrel to same-month Dubai futures, down 18 cents on the day, while October cash Murban rises 85 cents to a $14 premium. Mercuria bid for 500,000 barrels of Oman crude at a premium of $8.40 a barrel to Platts October Dubai crude assessments at the end of the Market on Close process. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0748 ET - Oil prices nudge up in afternoon European trade, reversing earlier losses. Brent crude for October delivery rises 0.7% to $88.46 a barrel, while WTI edges up 0.2% to $82.38 a barrel. Market focus has shifted to diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz this week, but the physical market remains far from normal, Saxo analyst Ole Hansen writes. "The market is trading the prospect of improving supply conditions well before those improvements have actually materialized." Benchmark Brent prices remain down around 7.5% for the week, as investors hope that talks between Iran and Oman will lead to a partial reopening of the strait. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0701 ET - Equinor shares have performed very strongly this year and the risk-reward ratio has now clearly deteriorated, SB1 Markets analyst Teodor Sveen-Nilsen writes. The bank believes that the Norwegian energy major's strong performance has been primarily driven by higher oil and, above all, gas prices, combined with the company's large exposure to spot prices. The capital market update was also well received, while the renewable energy strategy has become more balanced. The current share price already seems to discount 1-2 years of exceptionally high profits, but SB1 Markets' main scenario is that oil and gas prices and shares in the sector are lower in 6-12 months. The bank downgrades the stock rating to sell from neutral and reiterates its 365 Norwegian kroner target price. Shares fall 0.4% to 386.20 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0622 ET - Crude oil futures will likely be range-bound, amid expectations for a pause in escalating Middle East tensions, XS.com analyst Samer Hasn says in a note. The Middle East is showing growing signs of a potential absence of escalation in the immediate near term, he notes. Meanwhile, progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman is set to bring further relief to the market by reducing targeting of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, he notes. Given these developments, the broader trend for oil prices "appears sideways and wide," he says. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures edged 0.1% lower to $82.18 a barrel and front-month Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $88.18 a barrel. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0429 ET - The euro trades steady against the dollar as crude oil prices remained contained, with Brent crude last down 0.5% at $87.38. "The price of crude oil continues to defy expectations of sharper price rises and how the energy price story plays out over the coming weeks will be an important backdrop heading into a heavy month of G-10 central bank meetings," MUFG's Derek Halpenny says in a note. However, natural gas storage in Europe is a concern. The risk of higher inflation and weaker growth in Europe continues to increase and could potentially weaken the euro against the dollar in coming weeks, Halpenny says. The euro is unchanged at $1.1651.

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