Apple Bets on Phones and Smart Home Gear to Reinvigorate Expensive Shares

Trading Random
2 hours ago
This week, Apple Inc. is introducing a range of new products and upgrades to existing ones, yet investors remain doubtful whether these moves can lift one of the market's priciest stocks, which has largely stalled over recent months.

On Tuesday, the iPhone manufacturer is hosting a smart-home products event that will showcase an Apple doorbell and Apple thermostat. Later in the month, the company intends to release a touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini. Also, on Friday, pre-orders open for the new foldable iPhone Duo, which marks the most significant design overhaul in the history of Apple's most lucrative device and comes with a correspondingly high price.

The pressure is intense for Apple shares, which surged to a record in late July amid news of its smart-home push and doubts about the heavy artificial intelligence investments that Apple has sidestepped. However, the stock has been essentially unchanged since then.

"For a company of this size, you need super-hit products to move the needle on growth," said Peter Andersen, who helps oversee $5.5 billion as chief investment officer of Andersen Capital Management. "I'm just not sure anything we're getting is exciting enough to lead to an inflection."

The stock has gained 25% this year, positioning Apple as the top performer among the Magnificent Seven tech giants. It trades at more than 35 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months, right around its highest multiple since 2007 and well above its 10-year average of 24. Apple ranks among the 50 most expensive stocks in the S&P 500 Index, which is priced at 19 times forward earnings.

Part of that mirrors Apple's distinct role in the AI trade, where it avoids spending risk but is seen as a major beneficiary of the technology's progress. It also highlights investors' lofty expectations for new Chief Executive Officer John Ternus and their hopes that he can drive growth by enhancing and broadening its device lineup.

That is a risk, though. The company has reduced component orders for some iPhone models because of weaker-than-expected demand, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report last week. In the meantime, consumers are feeling strained by persistent inflation, and Apple has had to raise prices on some products due to higher costs for components like memory chips.

"Apple executes its products flawlessly, but it's hard to expect these will really take off," said Andersen, who doesn't own the stock, partly due to what he perceives as the company's lack of innovation. "Not only have there been major players in the home market for years, but Apple is launching these products into a market where consumers are under a lot of pressure."

Furthermore, Apple's growth rate is trailing its Big Tech counterparts, making its elevated stock market valuation stand out even more than it already does. The company's fiscal year concluded on Sept. 30, and it's anticipated to report a 15% rise in annual revenue when it announces earnings in a few weeks. But that appears to be near a peak, with the pace expected to slow to 10% in fiscal 2027 and 7.8% in fiscal 2028.

"Apple doesn't look like a value stock or a growth stock," Andersen said. "Given where the multiple is, it seems questionable to expect much additional stock upside from here."

Of course, Apple isn't alone in its decelerating growth. Overall tech sales are expected to experience a slowdown in the coming years, albeit from a much higher level. Revenue is projected to climb 37% for the S&P 500 information tech sector in 2026, and 29% in 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Whether Apple's new products will change the company's earnings outlook is still uncertain. But Wall Street hasn't been rushing to adjust its projections. Analysts' expectations for the company's fiscal 2027 net income have decreased by 0.6% over the past three months, while their revenue view has increased 0.7%.

"Apple's product path seems promising, but I don't think the first generation of new products will mean much for overall revenue," said Lu Zhang, founder and managing partner of Fusion Fund, who holds the stock in her personal portfolio. "It remains to be seen whether we will see the kind of new use cases (for the foldable Duo) that will contribute to a broad upgrade cycle."

Nevertheless, Zhang remains optimistic about the stock. Apple could enhance its AI offerings, she said, but it will keep benefiting from being a gateway for consumers to access the emerging technology.

"All the AI companies are competing with each other, but whenever they launch a new model they need Apple as a key distribution channel, and that's an area where it essentially has no competitor," she said. "Even if Duo adoption isn't high right out of the gate, so long as Apple continues to execute on its hardware, it will warrant a premiere multiple."

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10