Sigmaintell, a market research firm, has stated that the average capacity utilization rate of major global wafer fabs is expected to reach approximately 91% in the fourth quarter of 2026, with utilization at foundries broadly running at high levels. Combined with rising costs for energy and materials, an overall upward trend in wafer foundry pricing is now firmly established.

Driven by demand tied to artificial intelligence, mature-node manufacturers are generally optimistic about their performance. For example, United Microelectronics Corporation (NYSE: UMC) is expected to see capacity utilization above 91% in the fourth quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of more than 10 percentage points. Mainland Chinese manufacturers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKEX: 0981), Hua Hong Semiconductor (HKEX: 1347), and Nexchip Semiconductor (SSE: 688249) have already been running at full capacity since the beginning of the year.

In the fourth quarter of 2026, mature-node foundry pricing will continue to diverge by process node. Demand visibility for applications surrounding AI at the 55nm node and above is extremely high, driving prices steadily higher. The 28/40nm nodes sit between advanced computing chips and peripheral chips, and their demand-driven factors are relatively weaker in this round of price increases. A detailed analysis of price trends by process node follows.

12-inch (28/40nm): Prices to remain flat in Q4 2026, with upward pressure deferred

The 28/40nm segment primarily serves downstream applications such as MCUs, Wi-Fi chips, and OLED driver ICs. Demand stability in this segment has shown resilience during periods of market volatility, but growth has been relatively moderate during the AI demand surge. The 2026 mature-node price hike wave has had a limited impact on the 28/40nm nodes, with quotes remaining broadly flat in the first half of the year.

Starting from the fourth quarter of 2026, as applications such as communications, DDIC, and ISP recover, the 28nm node, represented by United Microelectronics Corporation (NYSE: UMC), has shown a healthy recovery pace at the 22/28nm nodes. Sigmaintell expects its 12-inch mature-node capacity utilization, mainly at 22/28nm, to reach around 93% in the fourth quarter. However, to accommodate newly finalized customers, prices set for 2026 have not been adjusted upward. At the 40nm node, represented by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKEX: 0981), foundries have not adjusted pricing at this node due to weak business conditions for smartphone and automotive customers in 2026.

Overall, 28/40nm foundry operators have generally adopted a strategy of accommodating price-sensitive customers in 2026, with no significant price increases in the fourth quarter of 2026. Cost-driven upward pricing pressure is expected to be gradually released in 2027.

12-inch (55/90nm): Continued price increases in Q4 2026, with the pace expected to accelerate in 2027

The 55/90nm nodes cover applications such as high-end power management ICs and NOR Flash. In 2026, AI infrastructure investment is driving demand for NOR Flash, high-end MCUs, high-end PMICs, and power devices. In addition, on the consumer electronics side, although demand for smartphones, tablets, and notebooks has been weak, demand from the repair market has grown notably, helping to support capacity utilization.

The 55/90nm nodes entered a pricing upcycle at the start of the year, with price increases in the fourth quarter of 2026 being relatively moderate. The main reason is that a concentrated round of price hikes is expected in 2027, and manufacturers are generally not inclined to make major adjustments this quarter. Although a considerable number of second-tier players began mass production at the 55/90nm nodes in the second half of 2026 with aggressive pricing strategies, their initial customers are mainly focused on low-end power analog products or repair driver ICs, so their impact on mainstream manufacturers' pricing remains limited for now.

8-inch wafers: High order visibility, with steady and firm price increases

8-inch process nodes continue to run at full capacity, driven by surging demand for AI-related power management ICs, power devices, and other peripheral applications. Capacity utilization remains persistently high, and order visibility generally extends to nearly half a year. In particular, 48V high-voltage PMICs used in AI servers are still predominantly manufactured on 8-inch processes, and supply remains persistently tight.

At the same time, supply has been contracting in tandem, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) and Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) both cutting part of their 8-inch capacity. Global 8-inch wafer foundry capacity is expected to decline by approximately 6% year-on-year in 2026 and continue to fall by about 2% in 2027. As a result, 8-inch process pricing is on a continuous upward trajectory, and prices are expected to remain on an upward path in 2027 even after manufacturers implement single or multiple price increases during 2026.

At the 8-inch node, manufacturers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKEX: 0981) and Vanguard International Semiconductor (TPEX: 5347) still have some room for capacity expansion, but the expansion cycle is lengthy. As a result, the supply shortage of 8-inch wafer capacity is difficult to reverse in the short term.